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What is the Martingale system?

Article updated: Portrait of KirillKirill

It feels safe because it usually works: most losing streaks are short, so most sessions end slightly ahead. The problem is the rare long streak. Bets grow exponentially - 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 - and eventually hit your bankroll or the table limit.

Example - Dice, 2× payout, 49.5% win chance. Base bet 1 unit, bankroll 127 units. You can afford 7 bets in a row (1+2+4+…+64 = 127).

  • Chance of losing 7 in a row: 0.505⁷ ≈ 0.84%, about 1 in 119 cycles.
  • Each successful cycle wins +1 unit. Each failed cycle loses −127 units.
  • Over 200 bets, the chance of hitting at least one 7-loss streak is about 57%. Over 1,000 bets, about 99%.

Expected value doesn't change: total wagered × house edge. Martingale only swaps many small wins for rare, very large losses.

In ProvablyHero tools

Run Martingale against flat betting in the simulator and compare bust rates.

FAQ

Does Martingale work in Plinko?
It doesn't change the expected loss. In Plinko it's also awkward, because "a loss" can mean anything from 0.2× to 0.9×, so doubling doesn't recover losses precisely.
  • What is risk of ruin?Risk of ruin is the chance your bankroll hits zero before you stop. What drives it, why it's high for Martingale, and how to read it in a simulator.
  • What is expected value (EV)?Expected value is the average result of a bet over many tries. How to calculate EV for casino games, why it's always negative, and what it doesn't tell you.
  • What is drawdown?Drawdown is how far your bankroll falls from its highest point. How to read median and max drawdown, with a worked example from a betting session.
  • What is auto-bet?Auto-bet places many bets automatically with stop rules for profit, loss or a target multiplier. How it works and why limits matter more with it.