Median vs mean: which "average" should you trust?

Example. Ten players each play a session starting with $100. Nine finish with $80. One hits an edge slot and finishes with $500.

  • Mean: (9 × 80 + 500) / 10 = $122
  • Median: $80

The mean says the group made money. Nine out of ten players lost $20.

High-variance games like high-risk Plinko produce exactly this pattern: rare huge wins lift the mean, while most sessions end below it. When a simulation shows the median well below the mean, that's the typical player's experience showing through.

In ProvablyHero tools

The simulator shows median and mean ending balance side by side.

  • What is variance?Variance measures how widely results spread around the average. Why high-risk Plinko swings harder, how it relates to RTP, and how to see it in a simulator.
  • What is expected value (EV)?Expected value is the average result of a bet over many tries. How to calculate EV for casino games, why it's always negative, and what it doesn't tell you.
  • What is drawdown?Drawdown is how far your bankroll falls from its highest point. How to read median and max drawdown, with a worked example from a betting session.
  • What is risk of ruin?Risk of ruin is the chance your bankroll hits zero before you stop. What drives it, why it's high for Martingale, and how to read it in a simulator.