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What is win chance?

Article updated: Portrait of AnthonyBy Anthony

Win chance and payout move in opposite directions: payout = (100% − house edge) ÷ win chance. At a 1% edge, 10% pays 9.9×, 50% pays 1.98×, 90% pays 1.1×.

What win chance doesn't change is the average cost. Every chance is priced with the same edge, so 1,000 equal-sized, funded bets have the same expected loss in the illustrative model at 10% as at 90%. Operator rounding can introduce small differences. Only the swings differ.

In ProvablyHero tools: set any win chance in the Dice calculator and demo.

See what each operator model pays for a given win chance setting in Compare Dice. Read the evidence notes before treating an estimate as confirmed payout rules.

Sources & references

  1. ProvablyHero Dice models and formulas
  2. Calculation engine and tests
  • Dice strategy: what actually changes your results Martingale, high win chance, low win chance: what each Dice strategy really does to your bankroll, with exact odds. None of them removes the house edge.
  • How to play Dice A beginner's guide to crypto Dice: picking a target, Roll Under vs Roll Over, how payouts and the house edge work, and how to check a roll was fair.
  • Roll over and roll under Roll Under wins below the target, Roll Over above it, and a tie loses. Why the same win chance needs different targets on each side.
  • What is the house edge? The house edge in plain words: how it relates to RTP, how to calculate expected loss, and why no betting system can get around it. With examples.
  • Provably fair, explained and checked What provably fair means, which crypto casino algorithms we have checked, and how to verify a Plinko or Dice bet with revealed seeds and nonce. Free.